NHL model · 2026-27

NHL Model

Every game, every night. The model's fair moneyline for each game against the market, projected goals and starting goalies, the plays it sizes, 32-team power ratings and the graded record. Refreshed every morning and again once goalies confirm.

Season record

Every logged play, graded in units. Minus odds are to win the units, plus odds are the units risked. CLV is how far the line moved our way after the play was posted.

Tonight

Fair line is what the model thinks the moneyline should be. A play needs a clear edge at the posted price; leans are tracked without units.

Power ratings

Rating is goals per game against an average team on neutral ice. Luck is goals above or below expected per game, so a high number means results have run ahead of the play.

Play log

The most recent graded plays.