NFL model · 2026

NFL Model

Every game, every week. The model's spread and total against the market for every game, the plays it sizes (spreads, teasers, wind unders and prop unders), 32-team power ratings and the full graded record. Refreshed every morning.

Season record

Every logged play, graded in units. Minus odds are to win the units, plus odds are the units risked. CLV is how far the line moved our way after the play was posted.

This week's card

Spread plays are sized against the opening line, so the number you see is often gone by kickoff. Teasers are two-team, six-point tickets. Wind unders fire when gusts are forecast at 25 mph or more.

Prop unders

Rushing yards, pass attempts and receptions the model likes under the line this week.

Full board

Every game this week: the opening line, the current line and the model's number, with the best price across New Jersey books.

Power ratings

Net points against an average team on a neutral field. Offense and defense are on the same scale, so a negative defense number is good.

Play log

The most recent graded plays.